LONG BEACH - Global political upheavals and natural disasters areplaying an increasingly critical role in shaping future tradepatterns at local ports, with many potential opportunities ahead.
Just three months in, 2011 already looks to be a transformativeyear for the world, sure to have long-term impacts on energypolicies, automotive industries and shipping practices.
Economists are still predicting between 7percent and 9 percentgrowth in trade through the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles thisyear, but in the three weeks since a 9.0-magnitude earthquake rockednorthern Japan, an estimated 13 percent of the global automotiveindustry has shut down, according to a recent estimate by IHSInsight, a Colorado-based trend forecaster.
Toyota and Nissan ship more than 300,000 vehicles through theports of Long Beach and Los Angeles annually, with billions more inautomotive parts, LCD screens, semiconductors, medical equipment andother high-tech gear handled locally.
By value, Japan is also Los Angeles' second-largest tradepartner, and Long Beach's third-largest, with a combined $40billionin trade.
The biggest effect is on the auto industry.
"The Japan disaster has had a profound effect on the automotiveindustry," said IHS Automotive Director Mike Robinet. "And the worstis yet to come because it will be hitting outside Japan, and theability to resource (high-tech) components is limited."
While most of Japan's major ports in the south were undamaged bythe quake, they're expected to be jammed with steel, cement andother construction materials pouring into the nation to rebuild,relocate or repair damaged auto and auto parts plants and othermanufacturing centers in coming months.
That could boost exports from Southern California to Japan,providing a temporary boost.
But Robinet said the nuclear radiation perimeter and rollingblackouts "will retard output for several months, with the mostsignificant non- Japan impact expected at the six-to-eight-week"post-quake period.
Toyota has already announced suggested retail price increases onall its models, ranging from a few hundred dollars to severalthousand dollars.
The compact Yaris, for example, is rising by a suggested $200,while the Sequoia SUV is jumping by $900. Other Japanese automakerssuch as Honda, Nissan and Subaru may soon be following suit, thoughno firm announcements have been made.
The Japanese disaster, coupled with unrest in the Middle East, isalso forcing consumers and businesses to reconsider energy needs andlook anew at renewable and alternative fuels and systems.
Since November, gas price spikes have undermined many industriesand individuals, adding to rising basic commodity and food pricesand shipping costs.
IHS Chief Asian Economist Rajiv Biswas says in a March 25 whitepaper that the "crisis at the (Japanese) nuclear plant may result insignificant changes in energy policy ... boosting the outlook for(natural gas) and renewables."
The could be good news for California, where the nation's mostambitious set of climate-change laws, known commonly as AB 32, isintended to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, along with other airpollutants, by 20 percent in the next decade.
To meet this goal, auto manufacturers, industrial centers,shippers and power plants are pouring billions into research anddevelopment of clean energy here.
Like the personal computer and Internet revolution of the 1990s,which evolved from government programs to private industries basedlargely in the Silicon Valley, these new energy technologies maygive California a much-needed economic boost in coming years.
There are already signs that local firms working on alternative-powered vehicles are capitalizing on this trend.
In February, a Chinese bus manufacturer signed a long-term dealwith Harbor City-based Balqon Corp. to build 300 drive systems forinner-city buses in China.
At the Port of Los Angeles, a 10-megawatt solar power "plant" isgoing up on open port property, using the latest photovoltaic panelsdeveloped from a California-based engineering firm.
The ports also have helped fund development of the world's firsthybrid tug boats, and have invested in the replacement of severalthousand trucks under their Clean Trucks Program, which bans all pre-2007 rigs.
Those are a few small examples, but more than $9.1 billion hasbeen invested in California firms working on alternative fuels andenergy systems since 2005, according to the state's GeneralAccounting Office.
If events like those seen since Jan. 1 continue, the events of2011 could prove to be a strategic turning point for ports and theindustries they support.
"The bottom line is that in the most likely scenario - other thanJapan and North Africa - growth in much of the world economy willnot be derailed," said IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh. "Butthe near-term impacts on some industries like automotive,electronics and chemicals could be quite painful."
kristopher.hanson@presstelegram. com, 562-499-1466
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